现在bitcoin还有前途不

fengkai

回复 15# jpegreader


    Bitcoin能作为货币的原因之一就是因为人类现阶段的运算量是有限的，所以以后到最后只会维持在210万左右...但是，量子计算接的出现会让人类的运算能力几乎无限的提升，这样对于在量子计算机出现之前的Bitcoin经济打击绝对是巨大的，因为其短时间内的通胀率绝对会高于过去国民党时期大印钞票时的通胀率！短时间内Bitcoin经济就会崩溃...而从长期来看，在运用了量子算法之后，由于量子算法与现在的算法的巨大不同，Bitcoin的总量到底有没有一个上线还无法确定，所以个人并不对Bitcoin报任何期望...太过危险而且泡沫过大...

jpegreader

回复 16# fengkai


    这个……[em03]
据我所了解到的信息，bitcoin的总量是由算法确定的，就算有量子计算机也算不出来了……

参见wiki中的这段话：

届时流通中比特币的总数将恒定维持在20999999.9769 BTC。生产的奖励会从 0.00000001 BTC变为0，然后将不再有新的比特币被生产出来。

acp134

回复 17# jpegreader


    能不能问一下……btc到底在算什么……[em03]

jpegreader

回复 19# Wayne_Chang


    谷歌党表示残念……

lch=gta

回复  fengkai


    这个……
据我所了解到的信息，bitcoin的总量是由算法确定的，就算有量子计算 ...
jpegreader 发表于 2011-8-29 18:20

   这个虽然解决了某些问题，但本身也是个致命问题
经济发展是需要流通货币不断增多的啊

jpegreader

回复 18# acp134


    可以说是在进行散列计算，通过散列计算算出一个block，然后这个block会被投入到分布式网络中别的计算机进行验证，验证通过后就正式成为一个bitcoin

这貌似涉及到密码学，我对这些基本不懂……貌似类似于MD5，SHA之类的玩意……
只不过我可以肯定的是，SHA至今依旧非常坚固，所以一个bitcoin被伪造是几乎不可能的。

jpegreader

回复 21# lch=gta


    用官网的话回答你……[em02]

两千一百万个币太少了，形不成规模

一个比特币可以分到小数点儿后八位。 比特币实际上有2,099,999,997,690,000 (超过两万亿)个元单元。

一个BTC代表100,000,000个元单元。换句话说，每个都可以分成10^8份。

1BTC在流通过程中价值会变得越来越大，届时人们可以使用更小的单位，比如毫比(mBTC)或者微比(μBTC)。

Inflation is simply a rise of prices over time, which is generally the result of the devaluing of a currency. This is a function of supply and demand. Given the fact that the supply of Bitcoins is fixed at a certain amount, unlike fiat money, the only way for inflation to get out of control is for demand to disappear. Temporary inflation is possible with a rapid adoption of Fractional Reserve Banking but will stabilize once a substantial number of the 21 million "hard" bitcoins are stored as reserves by banks.

Given the fact that Bitcoin is a distributed system of currency, if demand were to decrease to almost nothing, the currency would be doomed anyway.

The key point here is that Bitcoin as a currency can't be inflated by any single person or entity, like a government, as there's no way to increase supply past a certain amount.

Indeed, the most likely scenario, as Bitcoin becomes more popular and demand increases, is for the currency to increase in value, or deflate, until demand stabilizes.

lch=gta

回复  lch=gta


    用官网的话回答你……
jpegreader 发表于 2011-8-29 21:05

2万亿个单元根本不够
但看美元，现在流通量就在1万亿美元的级别上，如果按比特币这种单元算法，就是100万亿美分，那全世界的货币量要有多少？
流通量不足通货紧缩
总不能以后10^-8个比特币能买一台电脑一套房子加一辆车吧

jpegreader

回复 24# lch=gta


    bitcoin价值增大的问题没那么严重。10^-8的表示法确实蛋疼，但这个数字的单位是个，如果单位换成“皮”呢？那就是1000个pB了。换成“飞”，就是1000000个fB。用1000000fB来买你那套装备就不过分了吧。

而且bitcoin具有抗通缩能力，因为它的通缩是可预测的。参见下文：

Bitcoin

The key difference is that people don't foresee a fixed cost (unit amount) that they must pay with Bitcoin. If the value of the Bitcoins that they own increases, then any future cost will take a proportionally smaller amount of Bitcoins. There isn't any fixed incentive to holding Bitcoin other than speculation.

If the economy that uses Bitcoin grows, the per-unit value of Bitcoin proportionally increases also.

Everything is the opposite to the fiat fractional reserve banking system (because Bitcoin isn't a debt but an asset). Bitcoins only deflate in value when the Bitcoin Economy is growing.

Because the Deflationary spiral is a real problem in the traditional monetary system, doesn't necessarily mean that it will also be a problem in the Bitcoin economy.

    "Elaborate controls to make sure that currency is not produced in greater numbers is not something any other currency, like the dollar or the euro, has," says Russ Roberts, professor of economics at George Mason University. The consequence will likely be slow and steady deflation, as the growth in circulating bitcoins declines and their value rises. "That is considered very destructive in today's economies, mostly because when it occurs, it is unexpected," says Roberts. But he thinks that won't apply in an economy where deflation is expected. "In a Bitcoin world, everyone would anticipate that, and they know what they got paid would buy more then than it would now."

--MIT Technology Review: What Bitcoin Is, and Why It Matters, May 25, 2011